Fastighetsbubblan i Kina

Jag satt och läste en intervju med Prem Watsa, vd och grundare av Fairfax Financial, ett kanadensiskt försäkrings- och investmentbolag till stor del modellerat efter Berkshire Hathaway. Framförallt ett uttalande fastnade jag ordentligt för:

So you might have experienced that, have you been recently to Shanghai or Beijing? I was there just six months ago, and ordinary people, making 65k – 75k, which is a good amount of money/salary in Shanghai, owned four apartments, and their friends owned three-four apartments, and I said, “How high has it gone up?” and he said, “It’s gone up three or four times in four years.” But if they would just sell one apartment they could re-coup their cost, they’d have $1 million, but unfortunately there’s no way they will be convinced to sell because of the current psychology and an overwhelming belief that China’s a big country with 1.3 billion people and there are all sorts of reasons why a property price decline won’t happen. That reminded me of all sorts of real estate markets, including the one in Dubai that has fallen flat now and of course the U.S. markets, some time back the UK market, some time back in Canada we had the same thing, so these bubbles do break. But in China, it’s such a big economy that if it breaks, it will affect the rest of the world, particularly in commodities.

Bubbelpsykologin är alltid stark.

För övrigt kan resten av intervjun vara av intresse. Han förordar en helt annan inställning till aktieägande för tillfället än vad jag gör och det är alltid bra att lyssna på vad den andra sidan har att säga.


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